การวิเคราะห์ความเสี่ยงในการปลูกข้าวนาน้ำฝนโดยใช้ระบบสารสนเทศภูมิศาสตร์และแบบจำลองการเจริญเติบโตของพืช

Abstract

Risk due to rainfall variability is crucial in rainfed rice growing areas in the NE Thailand therefore analysis on risk coping of the farmers is importance. This research had evaluated the yield of KDML105 rice variety using a knowledge-based system approach, subject to rainfall uncertainty in 6 different kinds of paddies that related to soil and hydrological variability, with 4 scenarios of sowing times and 2 sowing methods in a watershed area of Ubon Ratchathani province. A GIS and a rice growth simulation model, ORYZA2000, tools were used with stochastic efficiency rule to analyze risk. The results showed that KDML105 yield was sensitive to rainfall variability, sowing times and sowing methods rather than variability of soil and hydrology which related to paddy's landscape positions. The results had proven that GIS and crop growth simulation model can help research and extension works to discuss the production constraints for concrete recommendation in order to reduce risk and increase farm's income in rainfed areas in the NE and other areas in Thailand where extrapolation is possible.